2025 Photovoltaic Thin-Film Manufacturing Market Report: Trends, Growth Projections, and Strategic Insights for the Next 5 Years

• Executive Summary & Market Overview
• Key Technology Trends in Thin-Film Photovoltaics
• Competitive Landscape and Leading Players
• Market Growth Forecasts (2025–2030): CAGR, Volume, and Value Analysis
• Regional Market Analysis: Opportunities and Hotspots
• Challenges, Risks, and Emerging Opportunities
• Future Outlook: Innovation, Policy, and Market Dynamics
• Sources & References

Executive Summary & Market Overview

The global photovoltaic (PV) thin-film manufacturing sector is poised for robust growth in 2025, driven by accelerating demand for renewable energy, technological advancements, and supportive policy frameworks. Thin-film PV technologies, which include cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and amorphous silicon (a-Si), offer advantages such as lower material costs, flexibility, and lighter weight compared to traditional crystalline silicon panels. These attributes are fueling their adoption in utility-scale solar farms, building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), and emerging applications such as portable and flexible solar products.

According to International Energy Agency projections, global solar PV capacity additions are expected to surpass 400 GW in 2025, with thin-film technologies accounting for a growing share due to their suitability for large-scale and specialized installations. The market is witnessing significant investments in manufacturing capacity, particularly in Asia-Pacific, where countries like China and India are expanding their thin-film production to meet both domestic and export demand. First Solar, a leading CdTe thin-film manufacturer, announced new gigawatt-scale factories in the United States and India, reflecting the sector’s global expansion and the strategic importance of supply chain localization.

The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of established players and innovative startups. While First Solar dominates the CdTe segment, companies such as Hanwha Q CELLS and Solar Frontier are advancing CIGS and a-Si technologies. Strategic partnerships, mergers, and acquisitions are reshaping the market, as firms seek to enhance their technological capabilities and expand their global footprint.

Key market drivers in 2025 include declining levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for thin-film PV, increased efficiency rates, and the growing emphasis on sustainable manufacturing practices. However, the sector faces challenges such as supply chain constraints for critical materials (e.g., indium, tellurium), competition from high-efficiency crystalline silicon modules, and evolving regulatory standards. Despite these hurdles, the outlook for thin-film PV manufacturing remains positive, with the market expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7% through 2028, according to MarketsandMarkets.

Key Technology Trends in Thin-Film Photovoltaics

The manufacturing landscape for photovoltaic (PV) thin-film technologies in 2025 is characterized by rapid innovation, cost optimization, and a shift toward scalable, high-throughput processes. Thin-film PV, which includes cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and emerging perovskite materials, is increasingly leveraging advanced manufacturing techniques to compete with traditional crystalline silicon solar cells.

One of the most significant trends is the adoption of roll-to-roll (R2R) manufacturing, which enables continuous production of flexible thin-film modules on polymer or metal substrates. This approach reduces material waste and energy consumption, while supporting high-volume output. Companies such as First Solar have scaled up their CdTe module production using highly automated, vertically integrated lines, achieving record module efficiencies and cost reductions.

Laser scribing and patterning technologies are also being widely implemented to improve cell interconnection and module performance. These laser-based processes allow for precise, non-contact patterning of thin-film layers, minimizing defects and enhancing yield. For CIGS and perovskite modules, laser scribing is critical for monolithic integration, which reduces the need for external wiring and simplifies module assembly.

In 2025, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) into manufacturing lines is becoming mainstream. These technologies enable real-time process monitoring, predictive maintenance, and adaptive quality control, leading to higher throughput and lower defect rates. Oxford PV and other innovators are leveraging AI-driven analytics to optimize deposition parameters and accelerate the commercialization of tandem perovskite-silicon modules.

Material innovation remains a core focus, with manufacturers investing in new deposition techniques such as atomic layer deposition (ALD) and chemical vapor deposition (CVD) to achieve uniform, high-quality thin films at scale. These methods are particularly important for perovskite and CIGS technologies, where precise control over film thickness and composition directly impacts device efficiency and stability.

Sustainability is another key driver, with manufacturers adopting closed-loop recycling systems and non-toxic materials to address environmental concerns. The use of less hazardous precursors and the development of lead-free perovskite formulations are gaining traction, supported by regulatory and market pressures.

Overall, the 2025 thin-film PV manufacturing sector is defined by automation, digitalization, and material innovation, positioning it for continued growth and competitiveness in the global solar market International Energy Agency.

Competitive Landscape and Leading Players

The competitive landscape of the photovoltaic (PV) thin-film manufacturing sector in 2025 is characterized by a mix of established multinational corporations and innovative startups, each leveraging distinct technological approaches to gain market share. Thin-film PV technologies, including cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and amorphous silicon (a-Si), have seen significant advancements, driving both efficiency improvements and cost reductions. The market remains highly dynamic, with players competing on technology, scale, and integration capabilities.

Among the leading players, First Solar continues to dominate the CdTe segment, benefiting from its vertically integrated manufacturing model and ongoing investments in R&D. The company’s Series 7 modules, launched in late 2023, have set new benchmarks for efficiency and sustainability, reinforcing its position as a global leader. First Solar’s expansion into new gigawatt-scale facilities in the United States and India further consolidates its supply chain resilience and market reach.

In the CIGS segment, AVANCIS and Solar Frontier are prominent, with both companies focusing on improving module efficiency and reducing production costs. AVANCIS, a subsidiary of China National Building Materials Group, has leveraged strategic partnerships and government support to scale up its manufacturing capacity, particularly targeting the European and Asian markets. Solar Frontier, based in Japan, has maintained a strong presence in the Asia-Pacific region, emphasizing product reliability and long-term performance.

The amorphous silicon (a-Si) segment, while less dominant, still features notable players such as Sharp Corporation and Mitsubishi Electric, both of which have diversified their PV portfolios to include thin-film solutions for niche applications like building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) and portable solar devices.

Emerging companies and research-driven startups are also shaping the competitive landscape. Firms such as Oxford PV are pioneering tandem and perovskite-thin-film technologies, aiming to surpass traditional efficiency limits and open new commercial opportunities. Strategic collaborations between manufacturers, research institutes, and material suppliers are accelerating innovation and facilitating the commercialization of next-generation thin-film PV products.

Overall, the 2025 competitive environment is marked by technological differentiation, geographic expansion, and a growing emphasis on sustainability and supply chain localization, as manufacturers respond to evolving market demands and policy frameworks worldwide.

Market Growth Forecasts (2025–2030): CAGR, Volume, and Value Analysis

The global photovoltaic (PV) thin-film manufacturing market is poised for robust growth between 2025 and 2030, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy, technological advancements, and supportive government policies. According to projections by MarketsandMarkets, the thin-film PV market is expected to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8–10% during this period. This growth is underpinned by the rising adoption of thin-film technologies such as cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and amorphous silicon (a-Si), which offer advantages in flexibility, weight, and cost over traditional crystalline silicon panels.

In terms of market value, the global thin-film PV sector is projected to reach a valuation of $18–22 billion by 2030, up from an estimated $11–13 billion in 2025. This expansion is attributed to both increased installation volumes and higher average selling prices for advanced thin-film modules, particularly in utility-scale and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications. Volume-wise, annual thin-film module shipments are forecast to surpass 25 GW by 2030, compared to approximately 15 GW in 2025, as reported by Wood Mackenzie.

• CdTe Technology: CdTe modules, led by manufacturers such as First Solar, are expected to maintain a dominant share, accounting for over 60% of thin-film PV shipments by 2025. The segment’s growth is bolstered by ongoing capacity expansions and efficiency improvements.
• CIGS and a-Si: CIGS technology is anticipated to see a CAGR of 7–9%, driven by investments in flexible and lightweight applications. Amorphous silicon, while declining in market share, will continue to serve niche markets.
• Regional Trends: Asia-Pacific remains the largest market, with China and India leading new installations. North America and Europe are also witnessing increased adoption, particularly in commercial and utility-scale projects.

Overall, the 2025–2030 period will be characterized by accelerated thin-film PV manufacturing growth, with market participants focusing on scaling production, improving module efficiencies, and reducing costs to capture expanding opportunities in the global solar energy landscape (International Energy Agency).

Regional Market Analysis: Opportunities and Hotspots

The global photovoltaic (PV) thin-film manufacturing market in 2025 is characterized by dynamic regional shifts, with opportunities and hotspots emerging in response to policy incentives, supply chain localization, and technological advancements. While traditional leaders such as China, the United States, and Europe continue to dominate, new regions are rapidly scaling up their capabilities, driven by ambitious renewable energy targets and the need for energy security.

Asia-Pacific remains the epicenter of thin-film PV manufacturing, with Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and First Solar (with significant operations in Malaysia and Vietnam) leading capacity expansions. China, in particular, benefits from robust government support, integrated supply chains, and cost advantages, accounting for over 60% of global thin-film module production in 2025. Southeast Asian nations, notably Vietnam and Malaysia, are emerging as secondary hubs due to favorable investment climates and trade advantages, especially as Western markets seek to diversify supply chains away from China.

North America is experiencing a resurgence in thin-film manufacturing, catalyzed by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its generous tax credits for domestic solar production. First Solar is expanding its U.S. manufacturing footprint, with new facilities in Ohio and Alabama, aiming to meet both domestic demand and export opportunities. Canada is also exploring thin-film investments, leveraging its clean energy incentives and proximity to the U.S. market. The region’s focus on cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) technologies positions it as a leader in high-efficiency, utility-scale applications.

• Europe is prioritizing energy independence and decarbonization, with the European Union’s Green Deal and REPowerEU plan spurring investments in local PV manufacturing. Companies like OXIS Energy and Heliatek are scaling up thin-film production, particularly in Germany and France. The region’s focus on building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) and flexible modules creates niche opportunities for thin-film technologies.
• India is rapidly expanding its thin-film manufacturing base, supported by the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and ambitious solar deployment targets. Domestic firms are investing in both amorphous silicon and CIGS technologies to serve the growing local market and export to Africa and the Middle East.
• Middle East and Africa are emerging as new demand centers, with governments in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and South Africa launching large-scale solar tenders that increasingly specify local content requirements, opening doors for regional thin-film manufacturing investments.

In summary, 2025 sees a geographically diversified landscape for PV thin-film manufacturing, with Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe as established hotspots, and India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East as rapidly growing opportunity zones. Strategic policy support, supply chain resilience, and technology specialization are key drivers shaping regional competitiveness in this sector.

Challenges, Risks, and Emerging Opportunities

The photovoltaic (PV) thin-film manufacturing sector in 2025 faces a complex landscape of challenges, risks, and emerging opportunities as it strives to compete with traditional crystalline silicon (c-Si) technologies and meet global renewable energy targets. One of the primary challenges is cost competitiveness. While thin-film PV technologies such as cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and perovskites offer advantages in flexibility and lower material usage, their manufacturing costs remain higher or comparable to c-Si, which benefits from decades of scale and process optimization. This cost pressure is exacerbated by volatile raw material prices, particularly for indium, gallium, and tellurium, which are subject to supply chain constraints and geopolitical risks (International Energy Agency).

Another significant risk is technological uncertainty. While perovskite-based thin films have demonstrated rapid efficiency gains in laboratory settings, their long-term stability and scalability remain unproven at commercial scale. Issues such as moisture sensitivity, lead content, and degradation under real-world conditions pose barriers to widespread adoption. Additionally, intellectual property disputes and the need for robust quality control standards can slow down the commercialization process (National Renewable Energy Laboratory).

Regulatory and environmental concerns also present challenges. The use of toxic elements like cadmium in CdTe modules and lead in perovskites raises questions about end-of-life recycling, safe disposal, and compliance with increasingly stringent environmental regulations in key markets such as the European Union and North America (European Commission). Manufacturers must invest in recycling infrastructure and develop eco-friendly alternatives to maintain market access and public trust.

Despite these hurdles, several emerging opportunities are reshaping the competitive landscape. The growing demand for lightweight, flexible, and semi-transparent PV modules in building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), portable electronics, and vehicle-integrated solar is opening new market segments for thin-film technologies. Advances in tandem cell architectures, combining perovskites with silicon or CIGS, promise to push efficiencies beyond current limits, potentially lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) (Wood Mackenzie). Furthermore, government incentives and decarbonization policies in the U.S., EU, and Asia-Pacific are expected to drive investment in next-generation thin-film manufacturing, supporting innovation and capacity expansion.

Future Outlook: Innovation, Policy, and Market Dynamics

The future outlook for photovoltaic (PV) thin-film manufacturing in 2025 is shaped by a confluence of technological innovation, evolving policy frameworks, and dynamic market forces. As the global energy transition accelerates, thin-film PV technologies—such as cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and perovskite-based cells—are poised to capture a larger share of the solar market due to their unique advantages in flexibility, lightweight design, and potential for lower production costs.

Innovation remains a key driver. In 2025, manufacturers are expected to intensify research and development efforts to improve conversion efficiencies and enhance the durability of thin-film modules. Notably, perovskite solar cells are moving closer to commercial viability, with pilot production lines being established and tandem cell architectures (combining perovskite with silicon or CIGS) showing record-breaking efficiencies in laboratory settings. Companies such as First Solar are scaling up advanced CdTe production, while startups and research consortia are pushing the boundaries of perovskite stability and scalability.

Policy developments will play a pivotal role in shaping the competitive landscape. The European Union’s Green Deal and the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act are expected to bolster domestic manufacturing through subsidies, tax incentives, and local content requirements. These measures aim to reduce reliance on Asian supply chains and stimulate regional innovation ecosystems. In China, continued government support for thin-film R&D and manufacturing capacity expansion is anticipated, further intensifying global competition and driving down costs (International Energy Agency).

Market dynamics in 2025 will reflect both opportunities and challenges. The demand for lightweight, flexible PV modules is rising in applications such as building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), transportation, and portable power. However, thin-film manufacturers must contend with the entrenched dominance of crystalline silicon, which continues to benefit from economies of scale and ongoing efficiency improvements. Strategic partnerships, vertical integration, and supply chain localization are expected to be key competitive strategies (Wood Mackenzie).

In summary, the outlook for PV thin-film manufacturing in 2025 is optimistic, underpinned by rapid innovation, supportive policy environments, and expanding market niches. Success will depend on the industry’s ability to translate laboratory breakthroughs into scalable, cost-effective products that meet evolving customer and regulatory demands.

Sources & References

• International Energy Agency
• First Solar
• Solar Frontier
• MarketsandMarkets
• Oxford PV
• AVANCIS
• Mitsubishi Electric
• Wood Mackenzie
• Trina Solar
• JinkoSolar
• Heliatek
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory
• European Commission